I’ll be keeping a close eye on how quickly the cyan and pink states on the East Coast get called(New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio) get called, as well as which swing state gets called first(propotionally, adjusting an hour or so to account for when they start counting). If Georgia or (proportionally) Arizona gets called first, that’s a strong sign for Trump. Michigan or Wisconsin(Michigan proportionally) strong sign for Harris.

Pollsters have been solid on the actual locked in voters the previous years, so this is coming down to the undecideds. Harris has a ground game edge, but the third party sphere has shifted against her compared to prior years and her shorter campaign is a bottleneck.

It’s sickly funny in a way that the 268-270 SunBelt RustBelt scenario is probably the most likely Harris win scenario(it’s what the polls are predicting). Had a couple local politicians in Nebraska 2 months ago made a different choice and changed to Winner Take All that would be a 269-269 tie leading to a Trump win.

Despite how close it is the most likely individual scenarios are still sweeps, as a small error one way or the other effectively cleans out. The 4 most likely scenarios are still ‘Harris sweeps swing states’, ‘Trump sweeps swing states’, ‘Harris sweeps all, but Arizona or Georgia’, Trump sweeps all, but Michigan’

Also, I personally feel the Electoral College is archaic and was built upon the principal of inequality. It is also the only reason George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump even got elected in the first place; neither had the popular vote.

I could write an entire essay on how the US and the world would be better off without the Electoral College, but I would just be preaching to the choir and probably nobody would bother reading it (lol.)