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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
There was an article earlier about people smoking crack if they thing Trump is up 10 points.
Well…he’s up 10 points. The Democrats need to do something fairly drastic soon if they want to win 24.
I feel like I’m the only one here old enough to have actually voted for Kerry and Clinton. This is how those elections started as well…
Everyone discounted the polls because they were absurd. No way Bush wins, he’s a…uh…special guy. 12 months later, Kerry concedes because he didn’t want to do to America what Trump did.
Just saying kids…history repeats.
You’re definitely not the only one. I remember both of Kerry and Clinton and was quite upset at the time about how blind the dems were to the obvious signs, but this is not enough to become alarmed. It is single poll conducted by phone making it incredibly skewed. And it’s a single poll.
Dunno man…the people that still pick up the phone are still by far the only people that vote consistently.
Another horrible take.
Then, I’m wrong, and this doesn’t turn out like the Hillary election.
Putting your head in the sand with your fingers in your ears won’t make this go away.
lol you act like there’s only two options - believing this singular poll indicates a trend, or pretending the poll doesn’t exist. However, no one is saying that it doesn’t exist. We just think it uses a singular and questionable collection technique and on its own is not enough data to draw a conclusion.
It’s clear from your initial post that you thought this was a second poll that validated the first, but once you’ve been confronted with the fact that this is another article talking about the same exact poll as the news last week, you haven’t backed down from your trend conclusion.
Let me put it clear as day in case you’ve missed the many other attempts:
ONE POLL IS NOT ENOUGH TO IMPLY A TREND.
Come back when there’s an actual trend, and you’ll find that many, myself included, will be a lot more receptive to that possibility because we are not burying our heads in the sand like you are assuming. It’s just that at this time, there simply is not enough data to draw that conclusion.
That’s a reasonable concern, but there are strong indicators that the electorate is very different now.
Again, Democrats have been massively overperforming. That means that in special elections since 2020 - and in the midterms in 2018 and 2022 - the polls underestimated Democratic support significantly. The same can’t be said of the special elections preceding Kerry’s loss. And it’s important to take note of who is turning out in unexpected numbers: Young people, who are notoriously hard to poll due to the fact that they don’t answer calls from unknown numbers.
Add to that the fact that Republicans have been killing themselves in record numbers by refusing to vaccinate during a global pandemic.
I’m by no means convinced Biden has a lock on the win. But especially more than a year away from the election, I’m not going to buy into the doom and gloom, either.
Also, we’ve got to factor in the Electoral College. Yes, it’s outdated and should be gotten rid of, but until it is gone, it’s how you win elections. Given that, national polls really don’t say who will win. You can win every national poll, but get crushed in the Electoral College.
If at this time next year the state level polling says that Trump (or whomever the Republican nominee is) will win, then I’ll be worried. Until then, I’m not going to panic because a couple of polls that may or may not be outliers say Biden is losing to Trump nationally.