“If, as I believe, the United States is defeated, NATO will disintegrate and Europe will be left free.” - Emmanuel Todd in an interview with Corriere di Bologna

I don’t think NATO will disintegrate if Russia wins, although it will be weakened and has already shown itself to be weak/ineffective, a paper tiger. EU has already made plans for an EU army with little interest at its inception, although now I think more countries will be for it.

Emmanuel Todd thinks Russia has maximalist goals in Ukraine, I disagree with him there too, although eventual liberation of Odessa might be in the cards. If they cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea completely, that will just be grounds for another war once Ukraine recovers.