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- cross-posted to:
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- [email protected]
Summary
The U.S. stock market has lost over $5 trillion in value in three weeks as the S&P 500 fell 10% from its record high.
The decline, driven by concerns over Trump’s trade policies and slowing economic growth, has led to weaker consumer sentiment and cautious corporate outlooks.
Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau noted rising uncertainty among investors.
The selloff has also hit AI-related stocks, with Nvidia down 17% and the Magnificent Seven ETF falling 16%.
My finance app automatically increased my retirement age by 8 years as a result of this. Retirement accounts, though diversified, are tanking. At least I have years to wait this out - I feel bad for anyone who was planning to retire soon.
To be honest, if you wanted to use the money in the short term, you shouldn’t be all in on stocks
Good time to buy. Might get a couple more shares in each parcel purchase.
Terrible time to buy. Economic things are very unstable right now and it’s very possible that the market will go down much much further
It’s impossible to time the dip, for most people, for long term investments, best advice is to just execute dollar cost averaging.
Invest small amounts of money regularly and let it sit.
This is all predicated on the historical trend that, while the market fluctuates up and down over the short term, over the long term the economy grows and the market grows.
Buying in a down market on a long term investment is just capturing assets on sale. You wouldn’t normally avoid getting something at 10% off on the chance that it might be 30% off.
The only thing that should really send you away from the market for long term investing is if you think the system will collapse entirely or if you think this market is at the peak for between now and when you want to use that money.
Also possible the market will go up
Just need to buy the dip at the bottom. Who knows when that will be though.
You shouldn’t try to time the bottom, but you also shouldn’t invest when the market has suddenly become erratic
I agree, but if you have a few extra dollars, doesn’t hurt to buy the dip, regardless of volitility, but I ONLY invest in the S&P 500. It’s not going to gain anything sitting in a savings account.
“Never catch a falling knife”
I mean, if you did the smart thing and followed the billionaires, you should have sold off during the bump in January and converted to holding cash. Even if you’re just buying a 15% dip, you’ll still be able to make an easy 40-50% increase once the markets correct.
Personally, I think the bottom is a lot lower than this, so I’m willing to wait a bit longer, but financial markets are literally where you want to catch a falling knife. Orrrr the markets will collapse, and the dollar will lose all value, at which point where you bought the dip isn’t gonna matter.
True, but that doesn’t apply here because it implies you want to buy it at the bottom and sell at the top.
Where if you are holding long term buying at any point after a drop is a good time.
Or you buy stock in company that has just entered into a death spiral. There is still an actual business that you are buying stocks for, and they can always fail in a downturn
True, assuming you’re willing to hold through however long the bear market lasts.
But you will be holding for however long that is.
In a way, things like that are like trying to predict the stock market in the same way that a farmer’s almanac predicts the weather.
The truth is, we’re way into uncharted territory here. The USD might be replaced as the fiat currency of choice for the world, and if that happens, all bets are off.
That’s to say nothing of the tariffs potentially crippling or bankrupting many companies and sending us into a recession/depression, where once again, all bets are off. There’s no guarantee a recession or depression will end within your lifetime or mine, or that the USD won’t crater, etc.
Or something like WW3 happens, or we get sanctioned from the rest of the world for aggressive military acts against: Canada, Mexico, Panama, Greenland, etc.
These are all things that have never happened before in the modern day and we don’t know exactly how they’re going to affect our stock market, but it absolutely won’t be good.
My believe is at some point the lobbyists of the 1% that have seen their wealth eroded by a sizeable chunk will have a stern discussion with the orange megacunt and he will back down to just a regular orange cunt.
Anyone with half a brain will know that ww3 will kill any semblance of power and influence the wealthy have now. This isn’t the Fallout universe where a select few will rise from the ashes. It will kick us closer to the age of strife in 40K
Unfortunately, if we’re using history as a guide here, we see that this isn’t what happens in other fascist regimes. Instead, the “industry titans” capitulate to the dictator, and the dictator treats them as a piggy-bank and pushes them out of a window anytime they need more funds for the “state”.
“Be greedy when others are fearful”
“Never allow doubt to tarnish your lust for latinum.”
I just have it all automated through my job, maxing out the 401k there and a Roth maxed out through a robo-investor. I’m not smart enough to try manually buying stocks. I did dump a thousand into random stock and crypto a few years ago and just don’t touch it.
No one is, who doesn’t have insider information.
There have been numerous studies on the efficacy of active traders, professional, amateur, institutional, etc.
The results are that the average active trader is no more effective than trading completely randomly.
In fact, somewhere around 80% of major, actively traded hedge funds… underperformed the overall stock market in the last 15 years.
Anytime a ‘genuis quant stock wizard’ type figures out some new technical strategy that actually works, the other professional technical quants reverse engineer it within hours, days, weeks at max, and then the whole class of fancy pants people have that strategy, thus it stops working.
Thats why 401ks almost all are just indexed funds, mostly made up of a basket of stocks that basically weights the whole DJIA or SP500 by market cap such that you are effectively buying a tiny slice of the entire market.
Imagine that bell curve graph with a caveman gronk on the left saying ‘active trading is basically gambling’, the nervous dude with ‘cool’ haircut with a page of text explaining his brilliant trading strategy, and then on the right side, the robed wizard guy saying ‘active trading is basically gambling’.
This is so true. For trading the saying “if everyone becomes XYZ no one is”. This may make a single person rich, but once a technique is known the market will adapt because everyone uses it and thereby become useless. You can analyse the market as much as you want. You can understand every single thing of it and if this happens you will realise, that the market is truly random. I once saw a good video which explained this, but there is no way I ever gonna find that specific video
I buy Vanguard ETFs which have low fees. Now I’m big into international post-Trump, so VXUS. You can get total bond market and stock market funds. This way you get diversification super easily.
(Note, not financial advice. Talk to a finance person ya wanker)
That sounds intriguing. Do you have any resources you recommend to read more on Vanguard ETFs?
I dove into Boglehead’s 3-fund portfolio guide. That would be a good place to start. You can also hire a finance person hourly for advice, which aligns their incentives with you (vs fee-based where they earn money on commission or dollars managed)