There were elections and ruling party won (again). Elections were rigged (by controling media and by other means to blackmail people to keep government jobs etc.). Current party is center-right umbrella party without any clear idealogy (other then self-preservation and interest) and problem is big corruption on all levels. People went on the streets (we were on the streets before this whole year…), but I doubt anything could be achieved (they seem too powerful and too rich currently, and opposition do not have real, strong backing from any foreign nation, as everyone seem to be OK with current president). Hope this helps
The West has a problem in Serbia because it is difficult to find an anti-Russian nationalist movement there.
Anti-Soviet people are easy, there are a lot of them, but for both the “red” Serbs and the Serbian nationalists, see Russians as a force backing Serbian independence. People remember NATO role in the collapse of Yugoslavia as well.
Without radical nationalists a color revolution doesn’t work out. There’s no one to form a militant group to start a serious mess with the police. The same football fan movement in Serbia is more likely to take to the streets with the idea of once again beating the Croats, but certainly not in order to overthrow their government, albeit not the most respected one, in the interests of the West. Especially when everyone knows that the West wants Serbia to participate in the war against Russia.
So, under these conditions, one cannot expect a classic Maidan scenario, when “peaceful” protestors are supported by close-knit groups of radical nationalists.
Not quite, as they never managed to get a government that would fully supplicate itself to the west. They effectively got a similar situation to Ukraine before maidan where Serbia stayed neutral between Russia and the west.
There were elections and ruling party won (again). Elections were rigged (by controling media and by other means to blackmail people to keep government jobs etc.). Current party is center-right umbrella party without any clear idealogy (other then self-preservation and interest) and problem is big corruption on all levels. People went on the streets (we were on the streets before this whole year…), but I doubt anything could be achieved (they seem too powerful and too rich currently, and opposition do not have real, strong backing from any foreign nation, as everyone seem to be OK with current president). Hope this helps
What are the odds of the protests getting subverted by colour revolution gangs?
The West has a problem in Serbia because it is difficult to find an anti-Russian nationalist movement there.
Anti-Soviet people are easy, there are a lot of them, but for both the “red” Serbs and the Serbian nationalists, see Russians as a force backing Serbian independence. People remember NATO role in the collapse of Yugoslavia as well.
Without radical nationalists a color revolution doesn’t work out. There’s no one to form a militant group to start a serious mess with the police. The same football fan movement in Serbia is more likely to take to the streets with the idea of once again beating the Croats, but certainly not in order to overthrow their government, albeit not the most respected one, in the interests of the West. Especially when everyone knows that the West wants Serbia to participate in the war against Russia.
So, under these conditions, one cannot expect a classic Maidan scenario, when “peaceful” protestors are supported by close-knit groups of radical nationalists.
Wasn’t the overthrow of Milosevic a color revolution?
Not quite, as they never managed to get a government that would fully supplicate itself to the west. They effectively got a similar situation to Ukraine before maidan where Serbia stayed neutral between Russia and the west.
They probably already have been.