I wonder how that would have played out. The Russians still have Soviet-era records of military installations, so big hidden caches of weapons like in Iraq are out. Western support could probably still come through but probably only a matter of time before the Ukrop resistance blows up a school bus by accident and the West gets squeamish.

Unlike in Iraq where there’s radical differences in culture, language, and history, how long before the average Ukrainian gets sick of living in European Falluja and starts snitching on the people blowing shit up?

If the insurgency can’t get up to much more than random stochastic terrorism, that’s probably not going to get them independence. The Chechans got up for far more and the Russians didn’t cave then.