Ozan Bellik @BellikOzan Sep 12, 2023 · 5:37 AM UTC:

Months between 1st launch and 4th successful launch of every medium or heavier launch vehicle family that debuted in past 30 years & had 4+ successful flights:

  • Atlas V: 28

  • H-II: 30

  • Falcon [9]: 33

  • Vega: 36

  • Delta IV: 42

  • Atlas III: 43

  • CZ-5: 44

  • Ariane 5: 51

  • CZ-7: 59

  • PSLV: 97

  • GSLV: 172

Starship had its first full stack launch in April. If it matches Atlas V’s 28 months, 4th successful flight would be in August '25.

Vulcan’s maiden flight is NET December.

If it actually flies then (doubtful) and matches the quickest 4th flight of the past 30 years, we’d see that flight in April '26

(As a reminder, they’re aiming to be flying ~twice a month by the end of '25.)

H2 '26 would by this measure be highly optimistic for the 4th successful flights of Ariane 6, New Glenn, and Neutron.

Let’s not even get into Terran R.

As fast as RocketLab moves (22 mo.s for Electron for above metric), even Rutherford reportedly took ~3 years from first test firing to flight qualification, and 1 more year to fly.

Full engine firing of Archimedes is expected NET late '23. Flight before '27 is optimistic.

[replying to “A question/request: could you please list on which launch attempt each of the rockets achieved their respective 4th SUCCESSFUL launch?”]

  • Atlas V: 4

  • H-II: 4

  • Falcon: 5

  • Vega: 4

  • Delta IV: 5

  • Atlas III: 4

  • CZ-5: 5

  • Ariane 5: 6

  • CZ-7: 5

  • PSLV: 6

  • GSLV: 9

In later xeets,

Saturn V: 16 (Apollo 4 11/67, A6, A8, Apollo 9 3/69)

Are we talking New Glenn? It’s certainly possible [that it’ll shatter records]. On the other hand it’s their first orbital rocket, and I’m not even expecting a maiden flight in '24.

[replying to: And people are deluded if they think a new entrant will do much better] Absolutely

They might all do better. I’m not expecting much better. And I’m only expecting 2 of them to have had a launch by the end of next year.

[Starship flights this year] I think that barring major regulatory obstacles, 1 more is likely, 2 more is plausible (if IFT-2 goes smoothly; even if no pad damage, if it doesn’t fly true, there will be a mishap investigation). 3 seems like a stretch.

He bundles Falcon Heavy with Falcon 9 as the same family, but excludes Falcon 1.

They include test flights