The poll, which was conducted from July 7 to July 9, found that 73 percent of Democratic voters “somewhat” or “strongly” approve of Harris as Biden’s replacement. In an earlier iteration of the same survey, conducted from July 3 to July 6, a 66 percent majority of Democrats approved of Harris as a replacement.
It would be amazing if Harris, a black woman, beat the shit out of Trump. But how probable is this? I thought Kamala Harris was universally disliked across the board?
It’s less that she’s universally disliked and more that she’s not particularly liked. In her most prominent appearances in the past 4 years, she’s lacked charisma and not taken stances notable enough to distinguish her from the administration. She’s heavily disliked on the left-wing of the Democratic Party for being a DA who laughed about jailing people for drug crimes she herself had committed in the past (possession), and not particularly popular on the right-wing of the Democratic Party because they’re still racist, just LESS racist than Republicans.
She may be the best choice to go with at this junction, but she wouldn’t be my first pick if the field was open. But the field isn’t open, so we make do with what we have.
I do very much like one thing about her. In a race where we need to be hitting Trump very hard on the campaign trail, a former prosecutor should be extremely well-practiced and good at that.
But otherwise I agree.
former prosecutor should be extremely well-practiced and good at that.
Prosecutor vs. convicted felon. Who wins? Watch our brand new reality show!
I bet I know who the party of “Law and Order” will vote for!
And to that end, I think Newsom would be the safest choice for a pivot by far.
- white
- male
- heterosexual
- somewhat corporate friendly
- a bit religious, but not too much
- charismatic + GREAT public speaker
Reasoning:
- the first three are simply attributes that make it easier to min/max voter responsiveness in a country that still has a lot of prejudices
- the fourth is so the mega donors don’t just dig in their heels
- the fifth is so the religiouses don’t just dig in their heels
- the sixth is generally a good attribute to have in a serious political contender
We’re trying to stop the fascists from winning. Anything else is (unfortunately, but necessarily) secondary at this point. Pragmatic triage of the situation MUST be the mindset with which the party is evaluating their choices.
Of course, the DNC is neither triaging the situation, nor being pragmatic about the candidate who can actually fucking win and stop the fascists, because from where I’m standing, it looks like Biden hasn’t done a great job at any point in his term of slapping down the Nationalist Christians + MAGA crowd (and friends).
Oh, and by the way I love the idea of Newsom, for exactly all the reasons you lay out.
nor being pragmatic about the candidate who can actually fucking win
It’s been a long time, and I don’t remember the exact quote and the entire context, but I remember Trae Crowder (the “liberal redneck”) on Real Time just after donnie was selected by the EC and people were trying to do some kind of post mortem on just how the hell we ended up with donnie.
And Trae Crowder says something like, “…or do you want to fucking WIN?” I remember Ana Marie Cox looking kind of put out by the comment, but IIRC, it was about pragmatism. I’m pretty sure exchanges like that went on, in various forms, all around the country during 2015-2016 and they are playing out again…
If anyone has a link to that full exchange, or to a transcript of it, I sure would appreciate it, by the way.
If you think about the Democratic parties base, two groups stand out. Lefties (like most people on Lemmy) and people of color, particularly black women. If you select Newsom over Harris you i.) deal an enormous insult to people of color, and ii.) don’t go nearly far enough left to satisfy Lefties. What part of the base would be enthusiastic about such a milquetoast replacement?
The part of the base that doesn’t want fascism (I.e. literally anyone who is sane) would be fine with a pragmatic choice.
Don’t fight all battles all the time. In this situation, it would be a grave strategic mistake to try to tick all the boxes in the face of an imminent fascist threat. Pick the guy who’s not going to offend (regressive-minded) people in flyover states, in the interest of, you know, not letting the fascists win.
I’m not saying those goals aren’t important. I am saying that those goals need to take a backseat for the moment to the goal of “let’s not elect the First American Reichschancellor in November”.
Republicans hate few people in the nation as much as Newsom. They would rally hard against him as the Uber-Liberal boogeyman.
Yeah, as an anarchist I’m particularly unenthused by “Top Cop” Kamala. I’m also concerned that people haven’t learned the lesson that Americans are extremely fucking racist and misogynistic. I’ll sadly be “voting blue, no matter who” but when the DNC runs these deeply uninspiring candidates, they can’t be surprised at how the low turnout costs them.
But also liberals love trying to prove they aren’t racist.
Biden can only use his quarter billion in campaign funds for his running mate Kamala. So the only choice is a Biden*/Harris ticket in November. And realistically no matter who anyone would prefer, you’re not going to sell a new candidate before November.
We’ve all in this mess, so now it’s time to grab the Go Joe, and clean it up.
This is simply untrue. He cannot give more than the maximum to another campaign, but he can give the balance to the DNC or a Super PAC to elect a new nominee.
I think the funds that the primary campaign got do actually go to Harris first. The DNC, PACs, and SPACs should be able to transfer like you said though.
Disclaimer: I’m not sure any of this shit is actually figured out. I doubt they thought about this situation when they wrote the FEC bill.
My reading on the subject, which is far from authoritative obviously, was that Biden can direct the funds anywhere he wants, he has the final say on where they go. Either to Harris’s campaign, a Super PAC, or the DNC.
It’s the right sentiment phrased incorrectly. Harris can take over the campaign funds entirely, because it’s the same campaign. Nobody else can do that, so anyone else would have to start campaign fundraising from scratch as the DNC or a PAC they can’t coordinate with has all the money.
Campaigns get a discount on ad spend and there’s a lot of perks with being able to send exactly the message you want to spend. It’s a notable advantage.
I understand what you’re saying, but at the end of the day the campaign is going to put out press releases for what they’re focusing on at that time. While they can’t coordinate, they can just read the press releases that are released to the public and do ad spends based on them.
I seriously don’t give a fuck who it is, just give me someone who’s likely to get to 270. Will vote for any D, dead or alive, over any R, always.
Yes, we’re all THAT desperate at this point.
Polls also say she would do no better than Joe.
So it won’t matter if she replaces him, right? I mean, if it doesn’t matter who the candidate is with polling, then changing the candidate shouldn’t matter, right? Like, why are we keeping Biden if it doesn’t matter who the candidate is? Theoretically, if it doesn’t make a difference who the nominee is, and it won’t change anything, then changing the nominee shouldn’t be a problem, right?
It more has to with polls. If the electorate is more or less set, then the numbers game turns into a get out the vote campaign. There is no reason to think that the candidate will have an affect on that, unless of course if you’ve already voted for them once
If polling is static for all potential candidates, then what harm can come from changing them? Why fight so hard for a candidate that you know is going to lose, unless you want that candidate to lose? 🤨
First of all - more or less static
Second ‐ it stops being who do you want as President, and who you’ll drag your ass to the polls for.
Current polls don’t answer that
Then you should have no problem changing the candidate, right? Right?
Unless there is a motivating factor of already voting for Biden which weakens GOTV…
We aren’t “keeping” Biden, the primary process was when other people could run against him and we got to pick. Now that he has secured the nomination, only one person on Earth decides if Biden continues to run or not–Biden himself.
Unless he gets impeached and removed from office or something, which is not very likely.
Hell, he even gets immunity for all sorts of possible crimes now, thanks to the Supreme Court.
Democratic donors warn of campaign funds ‘drying up’ as Joe Biden holds on
Donors decide.
Some wealthy backers are increasingly unwilling to pour cash into ‘losing’ effort
No, all they can do is stop donating. They cannot hold a gun to his head and control his actions.
That’s why you’re seeing a struggle within the party. It’s over, it’s been over, Biden just hasn’t accepted it yet.
Maybe, I don’t know. I was just shooting down that standard DNC conspiracy theory nonsense. “Donors deciding” is just a step away from “Jews run the world”, with the George Soros conspiracy theories being the step in the middle.
Common sense dictates that money does not grant you mind control powers, however, just sway.
This is an incredibly bad position. Saying that donors decide is nothing like saying “Jews run the world”. It’s not a conspiracy theory, it is a recognition that campaign funds are integral to a presidential election. If Biden can’t bring in money then his campaign will fold.
Yeah, it’s probably a conspiracy theory, and Citizens United is just the name of a polka band.
Yes but she’s capable of actually campaigning. Expectations have been clear since the debate. If he got right out there and started campaigning immediately, he’d probably be doing fine. It’s becoming clear however that he can’t.
Reee-publicans worst nightmare
Jesus christ. Can we just stop? Biden’s the nominee. Doesn’t matter who else you could get to run because they’d get crushed. Yes, it’s a terrible position the DNC has put us all in, but that’s just the way it is now.
That would be my opinion too, if I were a Trump voter.
The problem is, you have one side whos worried their candidate might be too old and another who doesn’t even care if their candidate raped a child and tried to overthrow their government.
However, for reasons no one can quite explain, only one of them is being called to drop out of the race.
doesn’t even care if their candidate raped a child and tried to overthrow their government
It’s right there. It’s because his voters don’t care. Calls to drop out from a faction Trump calls ‘the enemy of the people’, is a huge waste of time.
However, for reasons no one can quite explain, only one of them is being called to drop out of the race.
No one can explain? He got on a debate stage in front of the entire world and looked like a confused, doddering, and feeble old man. Any party would call for their candidate to step down after that.
As for why Trump doesn’t get the same treatment, it’s because the Republicans are no longer a political party, but have become a cult of MAGA. Hell they have people holding signs that say real men wear diapers.
Biden should make this case, when he’s not napping 💤
I do wish everyone would stop pretending the Biden replacement would be anyone but Harris. Everyone being cagy about who the replacement is just hurts Democrats, because it gives false hope to people who want someone other than Harris and thus encourages those people to both push for Biden to leave the race while still not being happy with the end result.
It will be Harris, if it’s anyone other than Biden. Period. Literally the only way Biden doesn’t endorse her as his successor is if he dies, and if he dies she will be the incumbent president.
I think she sounded great in her recent speech in Dallas. Presidential, energetic, refreshing. Started laying into Trump a bit past the halfway point.
Cool. So the best alternative is still expected to lose? Maybe it’s time to stop calling for a replacement.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
That’s before even a day of campaigning with her at the top of the ticket, I don’t think those numbers are as bad as you think. Trump has been campaigning nonstop for nearly a decade. Unfortunately Harris is not exactly energizing, but I bet she can pick up 2-3 points just by being normal for 4 months.
That’s true. Although it’s just as possible she’ll say the wrong thing and lose points. Some voters on the left are quick to abandon a candidate.
That’s not quite right. It isn’t that voters on the left are quick to abandon. They are fastest at disagreeing. Which, if not checked, will lead towards a desire to abandon.
The one great weakness of the left is our inability to agree to disagree. We all want our right to be the right and will shoot ourselves in the foot to prove it.
Post - Welcome: Irony.
If we all swallowed our disdain and moved forward together, we’d easily outstrip any efforts from the Right to win anything.
But the current polling says Biden will lose to Trump, and he’s been shedding independents.
What’s switching to another low polling candidate going to do? I’m just suggesting they nominate someone that poll tests higher before repeatedly calling for him to step down.
How many people know much about Whitmer or Newsom? I’ve had people on political subreddits tell me that Newsom is too liberal, when he’s always run as a pro-business, conservative Democrat.
Polling is useless until they’re on a big stage and people know them. Biden is well known and has been trending down since April. Have Newsom as the nominee and come out swinging at Trump, now the he’s too old argument plays well. I just don’t know who is voting for Biden but not Newsom.
Higher income Democrats. People who dislike Biden’s student loan forgiveness probably won’t like Newsom’s stance on reparations.
I don’t like his stance on reparations either, but I’d still vote for him.
Oh, same here. I’m just honestly not sure who could secure a win in a four month window with the broad demographics of Democrats.
Fuck me. Well, we make do with what we have.
Dear Armando Ianucci,
What’s it like being chosen by Apollo?
deleted by creator
If they try to change Biden at this point, republican states will invalidate the Democrats for failing to have their nominee by the deadline.
It doesn’t matter if it would be tossed out on legal challenge previously, the SCOTUS will invent a reason to uphold it. Trump wins.
Biden is the candidate. Let him run. Make him win. He can step down and hand it off to Harris later if he needs to. But the process is too far along now to go with another.
We want Joe!
Trump wants Joe:
Report: Trump Campaign Wants Biden to Stay in Race as an Easy Target
We want Joe… to fuck off into the sunset.
Of course she is. What other choice do they have? DEI doesn’t leave them much of a choice. And Republicans know they’re running against her anyway because Bidens not going to make it another 4 years.
DEI does not get voters electing you to a California Senate seat in 2016. Or, were those elections stolen in your opinion?
