If Pashinyan is overthrown I have the feeling society will turn very reactionary. I hope fascism and revanchism don’t come to Armenia after this. In my little diaspora community I just see constant blame towards communists, like they’re still in power today. And from what I hear anti-LGBT reaction is still pretty strong in the country. This is disastrous.
Because Azerbaijan didn’t ethnically cleanse either, nor were there pogroms targeting Armenians before the war ever started.
Clearly the solution to ethnic cleansing is even more ethnic cleansing. I’m sure that will stop the ethnic cleansing.
What happened in the 90s was horrific, both sides committed atrocities. How is restarting that a good thing?
I completely agree with your analysis.
I stopped following Armenian politics after 2020, is Kocharyan still the main opposition? I have no idea who would take over if Pashinyan is overthrown.
This isn’t a surprise. Azerbaijan has been blockading Nagorno-Karabahk for some time now after they won the 2020 war. Things were dire supply wise in Nagorno-Karabahk a week ago and then Azerbaijan attacks.
There’s three main questions in regards to Armenia’s response to this.
Whether Armenia intervenes militarily. So far this is a fight between Azerbaijan and the Artsakh Republic, the Armenian breakaway province of Nagorno-Karabahk which developed as the Soviet Union was collapsing and ethnic strife blossomed. In my opinion, this was a typical CIA stoke ethnic conflict job. If Armenia intervenes this can turn into a massive multiyear war much like the first Nagorno-Karabahk war. The conditions that started that war are the exact same as these as Azerbaijan invaded what was the Soviet Autonomous Oblast of Nagorno-Karabahk and Armenia intervened.
Whether Russia intervenes. Pashinyan which overthrew the mafia government led by Cheburashka in a color revolution has consistently distanced itself from Russia and has opened talks with the US and EU. So Russia does not trust Pashinyan, and is hesistent to provide aid that may later be used against itself. In my opinion, Russia kept its distance in the 2020 war until they were sure that Pashinyan had a black enough eye that the Armenians would overthrow him. This didn’t happen and Russian peacekeepers are still nominally involved.
Whether the West intervenes. So with Pashinyan dragging Armenia into the West’s orbit it will be interesting to see whether that has brought any fruit. I doubt it has, the West want to peel another country out of Russia’s orbit and they already have that. Why would they care about Armenia when they already got what they wanted. We can see how they treat a country that has their complete support and I doubt the average Hayastanci (Armenian Armenian not Lebanese/Iranian/American Armenian) wants to be like the Ukrainians. The weird thing is that this is supported by Turkey, everyone’s favorite NATO member, so NATO itself has it’s hands tied, but Turkish EU relations are low again and I don’t know what USA Turkish relations are at the moment.
There are some other questions too, but not massive. Iran has an interest in preserving it’s current border with Armenia while Azerbaijan wants to create a land bridge between the mainland and Nahkchivan. Iran has stated that this is a red line that they would intervene, which would spark a whole thing as there are more Azeris in Iran than Azerbaijan. If the Artsakhis decide to fight to the last man like it was the 1990s all over again. I see this as a possibility. Artsakhis are treated like dirt in Armenia, they are seen as wealthier, or at least were during the Soviet era and impoverished Hayastancis weren’t fond of aiding them. This is what I’ve learned from talking to refugees from the collapse. I haven’t talk to modern Artsakhis, so this attitude might have changed but I doubt it. What the Turkish role is in all of this. A major takeaway from the 2020 war is that NATO Turkey trained and I may be misremembering but took over some Azeri units
I just hope for peace, enough blood has been shed in the Caucasus. If Azerbaijan wins there will be massive ethnic cleansing. If Armenia wins there will most likely be massive ethnic cleansing. The status quo with less Azeri fuckery along the Lachin corridor will be nice.
Why did we welcome the fall of the Soviet Union ? In two days, Armenians would have been celebrating independence, but it has only brought us violence and poverty.
Thanks