Yeah, I appreciate the nuance too! It’s just I don’t have anything to really add as I’m the one who misread!

I appreciate the effort, but I was not critiquing your reading. Moreso that I took it differently. That’s just a misread on my part and my point was not about general investing as a proxy for progress/a driver.

Perhaps we’re talking to different points. Parent comment said that investors are always looking for better and better returns. You said that’s how progress works. This sentiment is was my quibble.

I took the “investors are always looking for better returns” to mean “unethically so” and was more talking about what happens long term. Reading your above I think you might have been talking about good faith.

In a sound system that’s how things work, sure! The company gets investment into tech and continue to improve and the investors get to enjoy the progress’s returns.

You’re conflating creating dollar value with progress. Yes the technology moves the total net productivity of humankind forward.

Investing exists because we want to incentive that. Currently you and the thread above are describing bad actors coming in, seeing this small single digit productivity increase and misrepresenting it so that other investors buy in. Then dipping and causing the bubble to burst.

Something isn’t a ‘good’ investment just because it makes you 600% return. I could go rob someone if I wanted that return. Hell even if then killed that person by accident the net negative to human productivity would be less.

These bubbles unsettle homes, jobs, markets, and educations. Inefficiency that makes money for anyone in the stock market should have been crushed out.

I don’t disagree with everything you said but wanted to just weigh in on the more degrees of freedom.

One major thing to consider is that unless we have 24/7 sensor recording with AI out in the real world and a continuous monitoring of sensor/equipment health, we’re not going to have the “real” data that the AI triggered on.

Version and model updates will also likely continue to cause drift unless managed through some sort of central distribution service.

Any large Corp will have this organization and review or are in the process of figuring it out. Small NFT/Crypto bros that jump to AI will not.

IMO the space will either head towards larger AI ensembles that tries to understand where an exact rubric is applied vs more AGI human reasoning. Or we’ll have to rethink the nuances of our train test and how humans use language to interact with others vs understand the world (we all speak the same language as someone else but there’s still a ton of inefficiency)

I agree, however as much as I wish our governments would do both - they won’t. At least not This is why I said we should be playing money ball. I don’t disagree with anything you said.

I think the additionallity to the grid as these renewables come online is great…but if they only cover the energy to run them then they’re not expanding the grid for everyone else. This emissions continue. I agree it incentvizes renewable builds but only if it powers more of the grid vs just being dedicated to the wells.

We’re headed towards a world where corps are incentvizes to buy up all the clean energy on the market and leave consumers with the fossile fuels right now. We just don’t have enough clean or renewable energy to power everything and demand is only increasing.

Agreed! I was just mentioning the only negative angle I could see, still a net positive!

We are not beyond the emissions reduction stage and will not be until the grid is 100% renewable or other emissions free energy powered.

Switching to clean energy is emissions reduction. Imo should be our #1 priority because we’re not reducing power demand without massive societal change.

Amen, only angle I can see someone disagreeing with is trees becoming a potential bank of carbon to be fed back into the atmosphere via fuel for wildfires.

I so wish there were better ways to control forest fires.

From an industry standpoint everything the article says at the end as a critique is correct. We should be playing moneyball, those fans that draw in the particles would be an additional toll on the power grid.

Instead spend the money on removing the emission sources and modernizing our grid/reducing fuel emissions. After weve exhausted low hanging fruit there we’ll have to throw money at offset tech.

I suppose we’ll have to get the tech made eventually but there’s just so much to be reworked on our grids as is.

12 yr club here 👍

These all align with my understanding! Only thing I’d mention is that when I said “we’ve not had llms available” I meant “LLMs this powerful ready for public usage”. My b

“Nuclear lover” is a bit harsh. Someone mentioned batteries but another area is in actually buying emissions free energy and proving it for audits or reporting.

An angle that needs to be considered is that any upgrades that need to happen to a power grid in order to connect (in the US) need to be paid for by the party adding to the grid. The US distribution grid is ancient and this actually incentivizes them to do nothing.

One of the major negatives in solar and wind power is the instability of it. I think it’s overblown but is a genuine issue. Factor in the massive, massive bill the newer renewable power generator pays and it makes sense to use something more stable to recoup investment. Nuclear is then safer, capital does what it does.

There’s also the negative that depending on the contracting for the batteries, the lessOR of the batteries might be able to “claim” the energy credits towards their zero energy claims. This is also how those other solar companies profit off installing them on your house, they take the “green energy credits” and can sell them.

Nuclear doesn’t usually have these types of stipulations.

Fwiw most people in the corporate sustainability push (who actually give a damn that is) think net zero is impossible without a significant nuclear push.

I haven’t been in decision analytics for a while (and people smarter than I are working on the problem) but I meant more along the lines of the “model collapse” issue. Just because a human gives a thumbs up or down doesn’t make it human written training data to be fed back. Eventually the stuff it outputs becomes “most likely prompt response that this user will thumbs up and accept”. (Note: I’m assuming the thumbs up or down have been pulled back into model feedback).

Per my understanding that’s not going to remove the core issue which is this:

Any sort of AI detection arms race is doomed. There is ALWAYS new ‘real’ video for training and even if GANs are a bit outmoded, the core concept of using synthetically generated content to train is a hot thing right now. Technically whomever creates a fake video(s) to train would have a bigger training set than the checkers.

Since we see model collapse when we feed too much of this back to the model we’re in a bit of an odd place.

We’ve not even had a LLM available for the entire year but we’re already having trouble distinguishing.

Making waffles so I only did a light google but I don’t really think chatgpt is leveraging GANs for it’s main algos, simply that the GAN concept could be applied easily to LLM text to further make delineation hard.

We’re probably going to need a lot more tests and interviews on critical reasoning and logic skills. Which is probably how it should have been but it’ll be weird as that happens.

sorry if grammar is fuckt - waffles

Fantastically put!

This is a bit dated but shows that 41% of road upkeep on average is paid for by gas taxes (and other fees). So yes while they may have some tax paid on fuel (that they have likely negotiated down via bulk purchase), they’re not even paying for half on average.

Edit - just to include given we’ve seen landmark inflation over the last few years it’s likely the share of taxes on upkeep has gone down.

Predictable issue if you knew the fundamental technology that goes into these models. Hell it should have been obvious it was headed this way to the layperson once they saw the videos and heard the audio.

We’re less sensitive to patterns in massive data, the point at which we cant tell fact from ai fiction from the content is before these machines can’t tell. Good luck with the FB aunt’s.

GANs final goal is to develop content that is indistinguishable… Are we surprised?

Edit since the person below me made a great point. GANs may be limited but there’s nothing that says you can’t setup a generator and detector llm with the distinct intent to make detectors and generators for the sole purpose of improving the generator.

Fuck no society (or at least my country) does owe me, I pay taxes. Quite a bit due to where I live actually, I’m not upset about it but I get fuck all for it. And I’m just a working class person, I don’t have any connections … Imagine all the people just avoiding taxes.

Tax me more, honestly just give me working infrastructure, healthcare and other things that a functioning country should have. I’m so sick of footing the bill for all these fucking bailouts and subsidization of private interests, the do nothings in Congress are the real freeloaders. And yet they’ll bitch at you when you suggest we allocate some of the funds from the military into making sure our ‘strategic highway’ systems bridges dont just fall over.

I don’t mind paying but the service sucks 😭

My unpopular opinion is that if you evade all of your tax responsibility as a company you should have no legal protections in said country but they’d never bite.

Amazon’s semis and delivery trucks provide how much wear and tear on the highway grid but how much do we get in taxes for allowing that? $0 (maybe not exactly but you get the gist).I mean fuck cars but most Americans want working roads too.

And no it’s not smart to avoid taxes, that’s bad business that hurts the entire system in the long run.

I feel like you think this until someone who ‘knows someone’ or otherwise benefits from nepotism gets to walk all over you and the facade of a system breaks down.

The fact alone that the courts in the us were packed with political interests during 45 already means the system is broken as your case could be “made an example of” at any time at any donors behest. That’s the fundamental form of redress in a civilized society and we can’t even guarantee that anymore.

If only these poor oil producers had some sort of half century or more lead to reap the benefits of their export advantage and diversify their interests. Won’t someone think of how unfair it is to ask them to change? /s