estii [they/them]

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: February 3rd, 2022

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  • Israel finally eking out some territory isn’t surprising, it’s surprising that it took them so long - when the ground invasion started, a lot of e-ink was spilled exhorting people not to despair when Israel made large and rapid territorial gains. My (uninformed) read is that doing those massive controlled demolitions of border villages are allowing them to now advance a bit further. I’d also be more skeptical of numbers in an asymmetric warfare situation, Russia-Ukraine is two standing armies along a line of contact which presumably makes it easier to count and assess these things. My understanding is that the Israelis are having trouble engaging Hezbollah in a significant way, I don’t think the attrition rate or morale situation are comparable. 60 Merkavas in less than 2 months.

    Hezbollah have fighting and fall-back positions layered 10s and 10s of km from the border, and then there are the mountains. They have been preparing for this for 20 years - to hear them tell it, they have more volunteers than they have capacity to train and equip. Every US-Israeli bomb makes as many fighters as it does martyrs.


  • Israeli wishcasting. These conditions would amount to a complete capitulation by Hezbollah - withdrawal past the Litani and disarmament, abandonment of Gaza, impunity of IOF strikes in the South, allowing return of Zionist settlers to Northern ‘Israel’. I don’t want to diminish the human impact of Israeli terror bombing, but on a strategic level Hezbollah has been outperforming all expectations, increasing their operational tempo, striking deeper into the entity, etc. A ceasefire may well be declared, but if this is the proposal it will hold for an eye-blink.

    I am open to being wrong, I am an outsider and a very distant one at that - obviously I hope I’m not. I have no insight into Hezbollah’s internal situation, but I’m pretty convinced that most of these ‘Lebanese sources’ and members of parliament that get cited for these things don’t either. Hezbollah have effectively built dual-power and are the protectors of Lebanese sovereignty in the popular imagination, I don’t think they’re actually beholden to the decrees of the atrophied Lebanese state apparatus. I take it as political theatre, for the most part.

    Or the situation is terrible. Fuck do I know