You appear to bend the numbers every step of the way to support a conclusion you simply can’t draw. Here’s the laundry list of issues:
1. The reported numbers of today and the estimated numbers from 1944 are uncomparable
I find it crazy to use a multiplier within the same scale to 1944 rapes as to 2022 rape.
The fair way to compare these stats is to that of German and Russian forces from the same time, which is totally fair game. But bending numbers to claim that women were safer with GI Joes in 1944 than in present days is just fucking bullshit.
You appear to bend the numbers every step of the way to support a conclusion you simply can’t draw. Here’s the laundry list of issues:
Then I suppose you retract the accusation that my numbers were wrong, and only maintain that my conclusion was wrong?
The reported numbers of today and the estimated numbers from 1944 are uncomparable I find it crazy to use a multiplier within the same scale to 1944 rapes as to 2022 rape.
We aren’t using the same multiplier with 1944 rapes and 2022 rapes. The estimates of the UN and the estimates of J. Robert Lilly are not done using the same multiplier.
and male victims in the estimates
The estimate of total rapes extrapolated from number of reported rapes includes the reported rapes of men by men in WW2.
D) Age of consent was redefined over the years, with now 3rd of 2022 rapes were committed against underaged girls (younger than 15) in France.
The age of consent in France was 13 in 1940, and 15 in 1945, where it has been ever since.
You can’t draw conclusions on population distribution-dependent statistics, by assuming a 50-50% distribution but a 100% perpetration rate by one sex.
By your own number cited just above, it would be a 96% perpetration rate by one sex. So, uh, don’t really know what you’re trying to prove here.
In fact natives males are quartered diffusely with females, whereas solders are quartered with males predominantly and thus the distribution is uneven. Since the majority of present-day rapes happen between current or past intimate partners (60%), the patterns are very much different.
Okay?
The fair way to compare these stats is to that of German and Russian forces from the same time, which is totally fair game. But bending numbers to claim that women were safer with GI Joes in 1944 than in present days is just fucking bullshit.
My point was to illustrate that the article was not saying what was implied. The rape rate of American soldiers in WW2 France was not significantly over the rape rate of the civilian population by the numbers the article itself cited. As far as “Let’s talk about American crimes” go, “The American soldiers were as bad as civilians, statistically speaking” is not very compelling.
As mentioned, elsewhere, the numbers of American rapes in Germany were much worse. But France? Terrible example.
Then I suppose you retract the accusation that my numbers were wrong, and only maintain that my conclusion was wrong?
I updated my comment.
We aren’t using the same multiplier with 1944 rapes and 2022 rapes. The estimates of the UN and the estimates of J. Robert Lilly are not done using the same multiplier.
You’re right. My source claims to have used “police recorded” incidents only.
Again reporting patterns, definitions, and perceptions are extremely different now, especially post meetoo, than in 1944.
I.e., you’re using a multiplier on a heavily underreported number (1944) to compare to a heavily overreported number (based on change in criteria) from 2022.
The age of consent in France was 13 in 1940, and 15 in 1945, where it has been ever since.
Good on you for looking this up. Your search history must look interesting. Regardless, unless they changed the age of consent and its enforcement before May 1945, this actually supports my point.
Okay? [on population distribution]
The background on this is, the first time I realized Elon Musk is either very dumb or a nazi (or both) was when he boosted a post on interracial violence that did not adjust for population distribution. It’s one of those ways to make outlandish statements that are “technically correct”. It’s like saying that based on their lower obesity rates, stone age people were healthier than modern humans.
As mentioned, elsewhere, the numbers of American rapes in Germany were much worse. But France? Terrible example.
That’s a point I consider much more acceptable. Yet this ruined an otherwise pretty funny original post.
So now your complaint is that I use an estimate of rapes instead of reported rapes to compare against reported rapes?
You do realize that if I used an estimate of rapes vs. an estimate of rapes, or reported rapes vs. reported rapes, in both cases the numbers would be much more favorable to the argument regarding the relatively low rate of rape committed by American soldiers in France, right?
You’re right. My source claims to have used “police recorded” incidents only. Again reporting patterns, definitions, and perceptions are extremely different now, especially post meetoo, than in 1944. I.e., you’re using a multiplier on a heavily underreported number (1944) to compare to a heavily overreported number (based on change in criteria) from 2022.
But the 1944-45 is an estimated number that presumes that only 5% of rapes were reported; ie the 3,500 number is itself using a significantly higher multiplier than the modern estimation. Unless your argument is that unlike numbers cannot be compared even with attempts at correction, in which case any comparison of rape statistics over a significant period of time is impossible, there’s nothing here.
Good on you for looking this up. Your search history must look interesting. Regardless, unless they changed the age of consent and its enforcement before May 1945, this actually supports my point.
Does it? Unless your argument is that a massive proportion of the girls who were raped-but-not-recorded were between the ages of 13 and 14, it displays that there’s not much of a numerical difference caused by the change in the age of consent laws.
The background on this is, the first time I realized Elon Musk is either very dumb or a nazi (or both) was when he boosted a post on interracial violence that did not adjust for population distribution. It’s one of those ways to make outlandish statements that are “technically correct”. It’s like saying that based on their lower obesity rates, stone age people were healthier than modern humans.
Because I… contested that the incidence of American wartime rape in France in WW2 was significantly higher than under normal circumstances?
That’s a point I consider much more acceptable. Yet this ruined an otherwise pretty funny original post.
Sorry for pointing out that something was a terrible example?
if I used an estimate of apples vs. an estimate of oranges, or reported apples vs. reported oranges, in both cases the numbers would be much more favorable to the argument of apples being better than oranges
FTFY. Since the definition of rape and consent had heavily changed in that 80+ year interval, you are not comparing the same thing.
Unless your argument is that unlike numbers cannot be compared…
Yes that’s exactly my argument.
…even with attempts at correction,
Not as specific absolute numbers when your correction multiplier can arbitrarily go anywhere between 2-10x (look up Radzinowicz dark figure formula that Lilly reportedly used)
…in which case any comparison of rape statistics over a significant period of time is impossible
definitely not possible without taking the differences in definition (including age of consent), reporting behavior and the distribution and behavior of population at risk (like hiding…) , etc into consideration just to make a statement like
the incidence of American wartime rape in France in WW2 was [not] significantly higher than under normal circumstances
Ironically, the BBC article you’re referring to captures my objections very well even in its title:
Revisionists challenge D-Day story
One woman - from the town of Colombieres - is quoted as saying that “the enthusiasm for the liberators is diminishing. They are looting… everything, and going into houses everywhere on the pretext of looking for Germans.” Even more feared, of course, was the crime of rape - and here too the true picture has arguably been expunged from popular memory. According to American historian J Robert Lilly, there were around 3,500 rapes by American servicemen in France between June 1944 and the end of the war. “The evidence shows that sexual violence against women in liberated France was common,” writes Mr Hitchcock.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8084210.stm
Sorry for pointing out that something was a terrible example?
You managed to outdo the example in outlandishness.
I wonder if people are more likely to report it today than they were 80 years ago. Or if more report in England vs France? I honestly don’t know much about that aspect of their cultures.
I wonder if people are more likely to report it today than they were 80 years ago.
Almost certainly, but the estimate of rapes in WW2 was, itself, done by assuming that only 5% of rapes were reported.
More pertinently, rapists use time, social connections, and lack of oversight to commit their crimes. All of those factors would’ve been in short supply for US soldiers in France, for various reasons.
The conduct of US soldiers in Germany, on the other hand, was considerably worse.
OP overestimates rape incidence in present day by over 5 fold. I can guarantee that they report it at a much higher rate today as there are actual procedures on how to handle it. it reads like rationalizing rape committed by soldiers.
OP overestimates rape incidence in present day by over 5 fold.
Fuck’s sake, can you not read the sources you yourself provide?
I can guarantee that they report it at a much higher rate today as there are actual procedures on how to handle it.
Yes, it is generally considered that ~25%-33% of rapes are reported in the modern day, whereas the researcher on WW2 whose numbers are quoted assumed, probably not unfairly, that only ~5% of rapes were reported - which is how the estimate of 3,500 rapes was reached.
it reads like rationalizing rape committed by soldiers.
Sure let’s talk about Normandy.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_during_the_liberation_of_France
Rape per capita in 2022 France: ~116 per 100,000 men
Rape per capita in 2022 England and Wales: ~234 per 100,000 men
Number of American troops in France during WW2: ~2,300,000
Estimated American rape per capita in WW2 France: ~152 per 100,000 American soldiers
By those numbers, it would be safer to be a French woman with an American soldier in WW2, than to be a woman with an English man today.
cut this crap.
wrongcherrypickedhttps://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/rape-statistics-by-country
By your own source, it would be 118 per 100,000 men in France and 218 per 100,000 men in England and Wales.
You appear to bend the numbers every step of the way to support a conclusion you simply can’t draw. Here’s the laundry list of issues:
1. The reported numbers of today and the estimated numbers from 1944 are uncomparable I find it crazy to use a multiplier within the same scale to 1944 rapes as to 2022 rape.
A) Reporting patterns changed over the years: [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_in_France #Statistics)]
B) Definitions had changed over the years such as inclusion of marital rape which : [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_in_France#Marital_rape] [https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jo-Lovett/publication/238713283_Home_Office_Research_Study_293_A_gap_or_a_chasm_Attrition_in_reported_rape_cases/links/00b7d52a09b4935e0e000000/Home-Office-Research-Study-293-A-gap-or-a-chasm-Attrition-in-reported-rape-cases.pdf]
C) Increases happened in inclusion of female perpetrators into the convictions (it’s about 4% in France but it’s still a major shift from 0%) [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1085508/people-indicted-sexual-violence-france-gender-age/] and male victims in the estimates [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8713172/]
D) Age of consent was redefined over the years, with now 3rd of 2022 rapes were committed against underaged girls (younger than 15) in France.
2. You can’t draw conclusions on population distribution-dependent statistics, by assuming a 50-50% distribution but a 100% perpetration rate by one sex. In fact natives males are quartered diffusely with females, whereas solders are quartered with males predominantly and thus the distribution is uneven. Since the majority of present-day rapes happen between current or past intimate partners (60%), the patterns are very much different. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1158136009000486?casa_token=egmg2OrX84oAAAAA%3Aan10FT7p5uFwGrxUWjhU1IH3Awc6oOR8tyrEZlkuqE88WHE7R-pcvEmCyTYY9EYJap6yFJA3
The fair way to compare these stats is to that of German and Russian forces from the same time, which is totally fair game. But bending numbers to claim that women were safer with GI Joes in 1944 than in present days is just fucking bullshit.
Then I suppose you retract the accusation that my numbers were wrong, and only maintain that my conclusion was wrong?
We aren’t using the same multiplier with 1944 rapes and 2022 rapes. The estimates of the UN and the estimates of J. Robert Lilly are not done using the same multiplier.
The estimate of total rapes extrapolated from number of reported rapes includes the reported rapes of men by men in WW2.
The age of consent in France was 13 in 1940, and 15 in 1945, where it has been ever since.
By your own number cited just above, it would be a 96% perpetration rate by one sex. So, uh, don’t really know what you’re trying to prove here.
Okay?
My point was to illustrate that the article was not saying what was implied. The rape rate of American soldiers in WW2 France was not significantly over the rape rate of the civilian population by the numbers the article itself cited. As far as “Let’s talk about American crimes” go, “The American soldiers were as bad as civilians, statistically speaking” is not very compelling.
As mentioned, elsewhere, the numbers of American rapes in Germany were much worse. But France? Terrible example.
I updated my comment.
You’re right. My source claims to have used “police recorded” incidents only. Again reporting patterns, definitions, and perceptions are extremely different now, especially post meetoo, than in 1944. I.e., you’re using a multiplier on a heavily underreported number (1944) to compare to a heavily overreported number (based on change in criteria) from 2022.
Good on you for looking this up. Your search history must look interesting. Regardless, unless they changed the age of consent and its enforcement before May 1945, this actually supports my point.
The background on this is, the first time I realized Elon Musk is either very dumb or a nazi (or both) was when he boosted a post on interracial violence that did not adjust for population distribution. It’s one of those ways to make outlandish statements that are “technically correct”. It’s like saying that based on their lower obesity rates, stone age people were healthier than modern humans.
That’s a point I consider much more acceptable. Yet this ruined an otherwise pretty funny original post.
So now your complaint is that I use an estimate of rapes instead of reported rapes to compare against reported rapes?
You do realize that if I used an estimate of rapes vs. an estimate of rapes, or reported rapes vs. reported rapes, in both cases the numbers would be much more favorable to the argument regarding the relatively low rate of rape committed by American soldiers in France, right?
But the 1944-45 is an estimated number that presumes that only 5% of rapes were reported; ie the 3,500 number is itself using a significantly higher multiplier than the modern estimation. Unless your argument is that unlike numbers cannot be compared even with attempts at correction, in which case any comparison of rape statistics over a significant period of time is impossible, there’s nothing here.
Does it? Unless your argument is that a massive proportion of the girls who were raped-but-not-recorded were between the ages of 13 and 14, it displays that there’s not much of a numerical difference caused by the change in the age of consent laws.
Because I… contested that the incidence of American wartime rape in France in WW2 was significantly higher than under normal circumstances?
Sorry for pointing out that something was a terrible example?
FTFY. Since the definition of rape and consent had heavily changed in that 80+ year interval, you are not comparing the same thing.
Yes that’s exactly my argument.
Not as specific absolute numbers when your correction multiplier can arbitrarily go anywhere between 2-10x (look up Radzinowicz dark figure formula that Lilly reportedly used)
definitely not possible without taking the differences in definition (including age of consent), reporting behavior and the distribution and behavior of population at risk (like hiding…) , etc into consideration just to make a statement like
Ironically, the BBC article you’re referring to captures my objections very well even in its title: Revisionists challenge D-Day story
You managed to outdo the example in outlandishness.
I wonder if people are more likely to report it today than they were 80 years ago. Or if more report in England vs France? I honestly don’t know much about that aspect of their cultures.
Almost certainly, but the estimate of rapes in WW2 was, itself, done by assuming that only 5% of rapes were reported.
More pertinently, rapists use time, social connections, and lack of oversight to commit their crimes. All of those factors would’ve been in short supply for US soldiers in France, for various reasons.
The conduct of US soldiers in Germany, on the other hand, was considerably worse.
OP overestimates rape incidence in present day by over 5 fold. I can guarantee that they report it at a much higher rate today as there are actual procedures on how to handle it. it reads like rationalizing rape committed by soldiers.
Fuck’s sake, can you not read the sources you yourself provide?
Yes, it is generally considered that ~25%-33% of rapes are reported in the modern day, whereas the researcher on WW2 whose numbers are quoted assumed, probably not unfairly, that only ~5% of rapes were reported - which is how the estimate of 3,500 rapes was reached.
… what.