A significant share of Democrats and independent voters in pivotal swing states Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona are more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee (presumptively Kamala Harris) if said nominee pledges support for an arms embargo to Israel, and if President Joe Biden secures a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The findings come in new polling commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project and conducted by polling firm YouGov.
In Pennsylvania, 34% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if the nominee vowed to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to 7% who said they would be less likely. The rest said it would make no difference. In Arizona, 35% said they’d be more likely, while 5% would be less likely. And in Georgia, 39% said they’d be more likely, also compared to 5% who would be less likely.
The total is around a thousand votes. The polls being conducted in multiple states does divide the number, but it also shows a nationwide trend.
It’s helpful to show people who claim this is a controversial subject that a ceasefire and even arms embargoes against israel would be a big win with voters.
I agree it’s super helpful to show people! Just thought it was worth pointing out that the numbers for each swing state are relatively low. But you’re right about the overall trend and the results for the whole sample taken together.