A significant share of Democrats and independent voters in pivotal swing states Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona are more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee (presumptively Kamala Harris) if said nominee pledges support for an arms embargo to Israel, and if President Joe Biden secures a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The findings come in new polling commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project and conducted by polling firm YouGov.
In Pennsylvania, 34% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if the nominee vowed to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to 7% who said they would be less likely. The rest said it would make no difference. In Arizona, 35% said they’d be more likely, while 5% would be less likely. And in Georgia, 39% said they’d be more likely, also compared to 5% who would be less likely.
Given that Netanyahu wants Trump back in, there’s no way he’ll allow a ceasefire before 5 Nov.
Given that the polls indicate voters want a ceasefire before Nov 5, there’s no way the Democrats wouldn’t use their leverage against israel to force a ceasefire while they are in right?
How much leverage do they have?
All of it since they control weapons export to israel.
Worth noting relatively small samples from each state:
IMEU Policy Project and YouGov’s survey was conducted July 25-Aug. 9. 387 voters were surveyed in Arizona, with a margin of error of 5.7%. 374 voters were surveyed in Georgia, with a margin of error of 5.4%. 369 voters were surveyed in Pennsylvania, with a margin of error of 5.3%
But overall this still seems to confirm what we would hope: people who are not staunch MAGA lunatics will vote for you more if you don’t arm a genocidal state. So all of the “pragmatic” arguments for maintaining the status quo so dems don’t lose votes don’t seem to hold weight. The best time to stop arms sales was a long time ago, the second best time is now
The total is around a thousand votes. The polls being conducted in multiple states does divide the number, but it also shows a nationwide trend.
It’s helpful to show people who claim this is a controversial subject that a ceasefire and even arms embargoes against israel would be a big win with voters.
I agree it’s super helpful to show people! Just thought it was worth pointing out that the numbers for each swing state are relatively low. But you’re right about the overall trend and the results for the whole sample taken together.
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